The headline is broadly defensible, but the qualifications matter. Effect sizes vary by population, the strongest claims rest on shorter trials, and credible voices push back on how it's typically framed.
annie duke talks about this in a slightly different way and she refers to it as back casting and i find it to be uh an incredibly powerful tool again to be contrasted with forecasting right forecasting is i'm just going to stand here and i'm going to tell you i got to do b and then c and then as opposed to saying no this is where i am that's the desired outcome let's start working the steps backwards
Every Sunday: the week’s new conflicts and verdict changes — and nothing else.
Native comments, Twitter mentions, and Reddit threads about this claim — surfaced together so the conversation isn't fragmented across platforms.
Bookmarking — the dossier-vs-overview split is the right call. Most of the time I want overview; sometimes I want receipts.
Would love a "what would change this verdict" RSS feed. Sign me up if it exists.
the idea of back casting is instead of trying to say well if i'm 25 what do i need to be doing tomorrow when i'm 26 and then what do i need to be doing when i'm 30 and what do i doing before an easier way to do it is say what do i need to be doing when i'm 100 and then how do i work backwards from that
the idea of back casting is instead of trying to say well if i'm 25 what do i need to be doing tomorrow when i'm 26 and then what do i need to be doing when i'm 30 and what am i doing before an easier way to do it is say what do i need to be doing when i'm 100 and then how do i work backwards from that