The headline is broadly defensible, but the qualifications matter. Effect sizes vary by population, the strongest claims rest on shorter trials, and credible voices push back on how it's typically framed.
If there is 870 dead people per 100,000 people per year, and we adjust that for the 166 million people that we've vaccinated in 1 campaign, and then we adjust that for instead of 12 months just 3 and a half months, which is the average period of time that people have been on average vaccinated, we come to this number of about 421,000 people that should be dead just by chance from getting the vaccine.
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Native comments, Twitter mentions, and Reddit threads about this claim — surfaced together so the conversation isn't fragmented across platforms.
Bookmarking — the dossier-vs-overview split is the right call. Most of the time I want overview; sometimes I want receipts.
Would love a "what would change this verdict" RSS feed. Sign me up if it exists.
And clearly, that's not the number of people that we're seeing. The reports show maybe 10,000 or 15,000. So, clearly, there is a huge amount of underreporting occurring.