Peter Attia· MD
Bayesian statistics adds another layer of level of complication to this in that Bayesian statistics gives us a way of updating probability estimates that we make and so there's a difference between you being a member of the random population and you being a woman who say has a bracha mutation that radically increases your chances of getting breast cancer and so if you are someone who say has a 50% chance of getting breast cancer in your life then a positive mammogram gives you a much much higher likelihood because it effectively updates your estimate that you began with of your likelihood of getting the disease