The headline is broadly defensible, but the qualifications matter. Effect sizes vary by population, the strongest claims rest on shorter trials, and credible voices push back on how it's typically framed.
The absolute risk increase was 0.1 percent it was a difference of one case per thousand exactly remember correctly the women in the placebo group were getting breast cancer at a incidence of four cases per thousand women the women in the CE plus MPA group were getting it at an incidence of five cases per thousand the absolute difference of that being one case per thousand
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Bookmarking — the dossier-vs-overview split is the right call. Most of the time I want overview; sometimes I want receipts.
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so at the time that the study was halted really the big headline of the study was estrogen causes breast cancer I use this as a great teaching example when I talk about the difference between relative risk and absolute risk the relative risk difference in the group that was Cee plus MPA relative to Placebo or versus placebo was 24 25 correct yes I think it was a little higher on the surface that sounds incredibly startling right so women who are getting CE plus MPA have a 25 percent higher risk of breast cancer during this 5.2 year period
the study only found an increase in the incidence of breast cancer to the tune of one case per thousand but no difference in mortality