Bayesian inference involves updating one's understanding of reality based on observations and base assumptions, including expectations about people's reactions and motives.

“So Bayesian is a view of uncertainty in the world that was sort of... There's this famous British vicar, Thomas Bayes, in the 17th century that started this, so this is called Bayesian, whereby I look at something and I try to infer, well, what's the underlying reason for it, and I update my... Based on certain observations that I make, I continuously have this running estimate of what I think is really going on, and this also includes my base assumption about the world, including political assumptions, including assumptions of how people will react, or what's the true motive of people.”