Humans struggle with appropriate discounting of future risks and accurately estimating uncertainty.

“if we struggle with appropriate discounting I think we also struggle with understanding what how to put uncertainty bounds on estimates you've probably played this game before it's a fun game to play where you take twenty questions for which there are known answers and you ask a person each question and you say look give me a range that has a 95% confidence that it contains the answer to this question and after 20 of these questions they should have correctly captured the answer within their range 19 out of 20 times I've never seen anybody can get close to it by the way”