Paul Saladino· MD
and they make the what we call the denominator right the denominator the the capital D denominator everyone's talking about right now in the calculation of the case fatality rate potentially much larger
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The headline is broadly defensible, but the qualifications matter. Effect sizes vary by population, the strongest claims rest on shorter trials, and credible voices push back on how it's typically framed.
and they make the what we call the denominator right the denominator the the capital D denominator everyone's talking about right now in the calculation of the case fatality rate potentially much larger
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Bookmarking — the dossier-vs-overview split is the right call. Most of the time I want overview; sometimes I want receipts.
Would love a "what would change this verdict" RSS feed. Sign me up if it exists.
your case fatality rate is mortality divided by known cases by definition the case fatality rate is an over estimate of the aggregate mortality why because it can't count the number of people who have the disease who aren't getting counted right by definition there are always going to be people who have the disease who are it's such a mild disease we don't know it
if you did that experiment and it turned out that 50% of asymptomatic people walking around out there had already been infected with the corona virus this would be a very different situation we'd have much less concern about what's going on because not only would that dilute the case fatality rate but more importantly it would tell you that the majority of people that come in contact with this virus are not at risk of dying and in fact we'll just have a minor inconvenience if anything at all
if you did that experiment and it turned out that 50% of asymptomatic people walking around out there had already been infected with the corona virus this would be a very different situation we'd have much less concern about what's going on because not only would that dilute the case fatality rate but more importantly it would tell you that the majority of people that come in contact with this virus are not at risk of dying and in fact we'll just have a minor inconvenience if anything at all
conversely what if you did that experiment and only 1% of people had been exposed to corona virus 1% of asymptomatic people had been exposed to corona virus well that would be very disconcerting right that would mean that your case fatality rate is very high and that we have no idea what happens when this virus truly gets out and infects a lot of people
normally a case fatality rate is just that it's a case meaning somebody has to be to present to a physician so you can't really compare the infection fatality rate with the case fatality rate
you basically began to see look this has got a lethality of about one in a thousand people infected