Models for predicting COVID-19 spread and mortality allow manipulation of variables like population, intervention aggressiveness, weather, and infectiousness.

“here are the variables if the population you can pick us or world for the purpose of my analysis I just limited to the u.s. to keep it easy you have the length of the intervention so how long do we enact social distancing we have the aggressiveness of it so is it sort of you know modest versus you know you know everything is shut down we have the impact of warm weather so you know is it is this a virus that's gonna go away in the heat versus one that is primarily gonna have not much variation based on temperature when did we start the practice of social distancing or intervention what is the infectiousness of it so for each person who has an infection how many people on average will they go on to infect this is the are not that we've spoken about a lot what percentage of patients go on to require hospitalization that is patients who are infected and ultimately what is the mortality rate and as you see by tweaking these things you can tweak the output of this model”