The headline is broadly defensible, but the qualifications matter. Effect sizes vary by population, the strongest claims rest on shorter trials, and credible voices push back on how it's typically framed.
And then for women who are age 34 to 37, the probability of conceiving in that first month of trying and certainly every month thereafter is about 11%. So when the age of the woman starts extending out to about 34 or 35 years old, then the typical advice of the OB/GYN is going to be to attempt to conceive over a period of about nine months to a year before deciding to take some sort of medical intervention.
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Bookmarking — the dossier-vs-overview split is the right call. Most of the time I want overview; sometimes I want receipts.
Would love a "what would change this verdict" RSS feed. Sign me up if it exists.
for women 30 years old or younger, because the probability of getting pregnant on any one attempt to conceive is 20%, well, then if that doesn't occur the first time, then she should simply repeat that at least five and probably six times before deciding to go to an OB/GYN and conclude that there's something going on either with the egg or, of course, it could be with the sperm because 20 times 5 is 100.
Now, for women who are age 31 to 33, the probability of conceiving in that first month drops to about 18%. So women in that age range and their partners should certainly try and conceive naturally over a period of six or seven months in order to get to that 100% cumulative probability.